Dax weakens – Trapped in the sliding zone

12/12/2017 – 10:30 a.m.: Before the interest rate decisions on the part of the Fed, the BoE and the ECB are due to be taken in the next few days, investors are still holding back. Indeed, Wallstreet was able to grow again yesterday, especially the technology exchange Nasdaq, where investors continue to use the setback of last week as an entry point. However, equity markets in China and Japan tended to weaken on Tuesday. The guidelines are therefore mixed and do not provide clear orientation in this context.

The coming trading days will therefore be dominated by international monetary policy. If the latter should bring positive surprises, the breakout from the hitherto stubbornly dominant trading range between 12,856 and 13,160 Dax points could also be crowned with success.

For about four weeks now, the German benchmark index has been trending sideways within the trading range concerned. Between the lower limit mentioned above and the psychologically relevant mark of 13,000 counters, there are several chart technically significant support factors that have so far served as a solid catchment zone. In addition, the relatively weak euro is likely to secure export stocks in particular.

A drop above the resistance level of 13,160 would meanwhile, at least from a charting perspective, activate upward potential up to the former record highs. A possible year-end rally is therefore also decided by monetary authorities on both sides of the Atlantic.

While a third and final increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve is regarded as certain, the ECB is unlikely to initiate or announce any major measures in view of the last extension of the bond purchase programme, albeit with a reduced volume. But it is precisely the potential for surprise that lies in this context that holds the potential impetus for an end to the sawtooth mode prevailing in Germany.

On Tuesday, investors are mainly looking at the publication of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Euro Zone for the month of December. In the afternoon, the focus will be on the publication of US producer prices for November.

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