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Tension on the oil market

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23.04.2019 – Daily Report. It seems like, the brokers in Frankfurt are taking it easy after Easter. New impulses should come from some economic data and the US balance sheet season. The situation on the oil market is far more interesting: There, the US administration has slightly shocked investors with the deletion of the last exceptions to the Iran sanctions. This could also torpedo the negotiations between China and the USA in the customs dispute – and thus bring the stock markets to their knees.

Waiting in Frankfurt

News was thin on the ground on the German stock exchange, just as it was in global trading. The DAX, for example, crumbled slightly at the start of the new trading week, and the index was just under 12,200 points in the morning. Investors first took profits; The DAX had risen to its highest level for six months on Maundy Thursday in the course of trading; the leading index ended the day around half a percent firmer at 12,222 points. On Tuesday, investors once again focused their attention on the Wirecard share, which at times slumped by around 7 percent after the end of the short-selling ban. The financial supervisory authority Bafin had issued the ban for two months as a precautionary measure against short attacks.

Iran sanctions versus China deal

The biggest activity was in the energy market – volatility seems to be pre-programmed in the coming weeks, which will not shock professional CFD traders. The White House surprised investors on Easter Monday with the announcement that the last exceptions to the oil sanctions against Iran would expire on May 1st. After US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s press conference, oil prices rose to a six-month high. Many investors had expected the special arrangements to be extended. The market already seems tense to many traders anyway, as supply shortfalls in the crisis countries Venezuela and Libya are already scarce.
In May last year, the US allowed eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil to a limited extent – including China and India, which are still buying crude in Iran. And this is a link to the stock market: Wall Street is not the only one hoping for a deal in the customs dispute between the People’s Republic of China and the USA. The negotiations could be jeopardized by the new irritant topic of Iran oil.

How will OPEC react?

US President Donald Trump wants to force the mullah regime to stop its nuclear weapons program, stop missile testing and stop supporting terrorist groups in the Middle East. The Iranian gap is to be closed by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, the president twittered. Trump also explained that he expects the oil cartel to abandon its five-month production restrictions. They have pushed up the price of oil this year. Accordingly, the inventory data for the US crude oil stocks of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which will be received today at 22.30 hrs, will become particularly important.

Asian stock markets without a clear trend

Against the background of the Iran sanctions, the Asian stock markets were restrained, especially as the balance sheet season also begins there. There was also speculation on the Chinese floor about a reduction in government stimulus packages. For example, the Chinese CSI 300 closed 0.2 percent lower at 4,019 points, while the Nikkei rose by a moderate 0.2 percent to 22,260 positions.

Wall Street listless

The oil price and bad data from the real estate market had also slowed down investors on Wall Street on Easter Monday. With an extremely low volume, the Dow Jones Industrial slipped by around 0.2 percent to 26,511 points. The S&P 500 recorded a moderate gain of 0.1 percent to 2908 positions, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.3 percent to 7714 points. Data on the start of construction and building permits for March had already been announced on Friday, and were worse than expected. On Monday, sales of existing real estate in March were also below forecasts.

This is what the day brings

Once again new data on the US real estate market will arrive today at 16:00, then the new buildings sold will be reported for March in the United States.
At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the Euro-Zone is ticking in April.
Meanwhile, the US balance season continues: Coca-Cola is to present figures before 1 p.m. German time, including Procter & Gamble and Verizon. The balance sheets of Texas Instruments and Ebay are expected after the close of trading.
We are curious to see how Wall Street, DAX and co. react and wish you successful trades with Germany’s best CFD brokers!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Slight minus before the flood of data

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18.04.2019 – Daily report. Investors in Frankfurt first take profits at Easter. That is after a nice profit series of six days also no miracle. News remained at first thinly sown. Besides the fact that the Nasdaq 100 set a bullish signal with a record high the evening before. But before tomorrow’s stock market holiday, there will be another large bunch of fresh economic data.

Falling prices in Frankfurt

Despite positive signals from the German economy, many investors sold their shares. So for most German investors there was little to get on Maundy Thursday – unless they trade CFDs with Germany’s best CFD brokers. For the DAX, early trading was down by around 0.4 percent, with the index approaching the 12,100 mark. The leading index thus still remained within reach of the latest annual high of 12,304 points. The purchasing managers’ indices for Germany were all above the forecasts. However, the European counterparts were disappointing. The concrete figures can be found here at: Market Mover

Flood of news before Easter

In view of the busy schedule, most investors remained in a waiting position. In the US reporting season, Philip Morris reports his results for the first quarter at 1 p.m. German time. Shortly after 10 p.m. American Express closes the day.
On the economic side, US retail sales for March are due at 14:30. The same applies to the weekly American initial applications for unemployment benefits and the Philadelphia Fed Index for April.
At 15:45, the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing and Services will follow.
At 4:00 p.m., the US Leading Indicators Index for March runs through the Ticker and Inventories February.
At Eurex, the small expiration date for equity index options is also on the agenda.

Waiting and Seeing in Asia

On the Asian stock exchanges, investors also waited this morning for news from the negotiations between China and the USA in the customs dispute. In addition, many brokers held back before the start of the Japanese reporting season. Many took profits after the Nikkei rose to its highest level since early December in Tokyo on Wednesday. On Thursday, however, the Nikkei fell by 0.8 percent to 22,080 points. The CSI 300 spent almost all of its trading in the red, with the index of China’s major stocks ending the day down 0.4 percent at 4,072 points.

High-tech boom in New York

On Wall Street, technology stocks set the pace on Wednesday. The Nasdaq 100 finally gained 0.3 percent to 7,681 points. In early trading, the index had reached the highest level in its history with around 7,715 points. The bull market was helped by significant price gains by Qualcomm and Intel: Apple will acquire a patent license and also buy chips from Qualcomm.
The standard stocks were already feeling the Easter holiday calm: the Dow Jones Industrial sent hardly any signs of life with minus 0.01 percent to around 26,450 points. The S&P 500 even fell by 0.2 percent to 2,900 jobs. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book had no influence on events. Meanwhile, the reporting season in the USA had brought a damper with it for investors: The computer giant IBM had to accept a surprisingly clear dent in business at the beginning of the year. Sales in the first quarter fell significantly short of the forecasts.
We are curious to see how the reporting season will continue – Bernstein Bank wishes you and your family a happy Easter!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

dax graphic

Easter bull market in Frankfurt

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16.04.2019 – Daily report. It can go on like this from the bulls’ point of view: In early trading, the DAX has worked its way up to its highest level since October 2018. Germany’s leading index has almost effortlessly conquered the 12,100 mark. Once again, hopes of an agreement in the customs dispute between China and the USA provided a boost.

DAX in rally mode

After the storm to the 12,000 mark, the German benchmark index seemed to have barely stopped in the rather quiet Holy Week. With an increase of around 0.8 percent, it reached its highest level of 12,115 points. Initially, the ZEW index had hardly any influence on what was happening on the stock market. You can find out how it actually turned out and all other economic data plus forecasts as a service of the Bernstein Bank here on this page: Market Mover
Another small hint for investors who want to invest countercyclically: The volatility index VDAX slipped to 12.13 points in the morning, its lowest level in 15 months. So at the moment, the stock market is looking very rosy. But where are the buyers when everyone has already entered the market?

Customs hope again and again

Once again, China missed out on the strongest stimulus for Tuesday trading in Frankfurt. The CSI 300 Index climbed by 2.8 percent to 4,086 points. The Nikkei also recorded a small high in Tokyo, closing 0.2 percent higher at the 22,222-point a serendipitous number in trading, the Japanese benchmark index had reached its highest level in four months.
Once again, the hope of a solution to the customs dispute between the USA and China provided a buying mood. The news agency Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed insiders, that the People’s Republic was probably prepared to shift duties on US agricultural products to other products. This would allow the US government to sell this to farmers as a success before the 2020 election.

Goldman Sachs disappointed

There had hardly been any tailwind from the New York Stock Exchange. All three leading indices had lost 0.1 percent on Monday. At the closing bell, the Dow Jones stood at 26,384 points, the market-wide S&P 500 at 2,905 points and the composite index of the technology exchange Nasdaq at 7,976 points. The quarterly figures of Goldman Sachs provided sand in the stock market machinery. A weak result in financial market trading caused the investment bank’s profits to collapse at the beginning of the year. In addition, earnings in equity trading fell short of analysts’ expectations.

News in abundance

We are curious to see how Tuesday will continue. In any case, there is an abundance of news that could potentially move the share price.
In the reporting season, Johnston&Johnston, among others, presents figures (around 12.40 p.m. German time). In the late evening, Netflix and IBM will present their results for the first quarter around 10 pm.
At 3.15 p.m., the Federal Reserve will speak on the subject of industrial production and capacity utilization. The forecast for the industry is – 0.1 percent.
The final item is the oil inventory data of the American Petroleum Institute at 22:30.
As you can see, there are enough investment opportunities for every CFD trader – but please only trade with a bank that has a Bafin license!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

mobile trading

US balance sheet season and Beijing dominate

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15.04.2019 – Daily report. Investors in Frankfurt are digesting the positive news from the previous week. In early Monday trading, there was initially little movement on the trading platform, the real-time prices hardly flashed. The US big banks JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo had delivered encouraging figures on Friday. More heavyweights are expected today. But once again, the Chinese-American tariff dispute dominated.

DAX at 12,000

At the beginning of the week, Germany’s leading index again danced around just below the 12,000 mark. Last Friday, the DAX had marked a fresh annual high of 12,031 points, rather discreetly. There was also a tense wait in global trade due to the negotiations in the customs dispute between China and the USA.

The last round

Statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were positively received: he said at the weekend on the sidelines of the IMF spring meeting in Washington that the efforts of the two countries would go far beyond what had been achieved in recent years in terms of trade agreements. The politician also added that he was full of hope that “The final round would soon be ushered in”.
Meanwhile, the US broadcaster CNBC, referring to unnamed insiders, reported that the US had withdrawn its red line a bit because of fierce resistance from Beijing. According to this, China is partoutly refusing to reduce subsidies for its industry as much as Washington demands. The Chinese leadership is granting this support to large state-owned corporations and industries that are considered strategic. The competitive advantage puts American and other foreign firms at a disadvantage.

Asia hesitant

The stock markets in Asia initially received the news positively, before scepticism spread again. The CSI 300 was up until shortly before the close, but finally closed at minus 0.3 percent at 3,976 points. The Hang Seng also slipped into the red in the last trading hour, also losing 0.3 percent to 29,811 positions. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 rose by 1.4 percent to 22,169 points.

New York bullish

The New York specifications had been positive for the cops on Friday. At the closing bell, the Dow Jones recorded a gain of around 1 percent to 26,412 points. The Walt Disney share presented itself as a real price rocket in the Dow – it shot up by 11.54 percent. The stock reached an all-time high in the course of the year because the Group is now entering the video streaming business with a fighting spirit. Accordingly, Netflix lost more than 4 percent.
The S&P 500 gained 0.7 percent to 2907 points on Friday. The market-wide index thus came within reach of its high of just under 2941 points in September 2018. The technology index Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.4 percent to 7628 points.

Convincing banks

The main event on Friday was the figures of two financial giants. The largest of the US banks, JPMorgan Chase, opened the first quarter balance sheet season and once again convinced investors. The financial group outperformed estimates in almost all areas. Wells Fargo also beat analysts’ forecasts, but lowered this year’s net interest income forecast in the conference call. The bank blamed this on the Federal Reserve’s persistently low interest rate. The results of the major banks are regarded as an important economic indicator.
Thus, on a rather dull day with economic appointments, investors look forward to the next balance sheet events. On Monday, the next heavyweights are Goldman Sachs – expected at 1.35 p.m. German time – and Citigroup (2 p.m.). If anything, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for April, which is due to start at 14:30, could attract even more interest.
We wish you a very successful day trading!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

stock news graphic

Now it’s getting serious

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12.04.2019 – Daily report. From today on the excitement on Wall Street will be at its peak just like always during earnings season: With Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, the first two heavyweights will ring in the US balance sheet. The results of the major banks in the first quarter are regarded as an important indicator of the economic situation in the USA. Futures are therefore likely to move. In Frankfurt, on the other hand, things remained quiet. Nobody wanted to position themselves wrong.

DAX just under 12,000

In view of the figures of the two US financial groups due before the opening of Wall Street, Germany was cautious. The DAX nevertheless worked its way up to just under the 12,000 mark and tended slightly higher. The leading index thus climbed to its annual high of 12,029 points.

Is the subsidy cut crumbling?

Most of the movement took place recently in the oil market. Yesterday, Thursday, a sharp rise in US inventories caused a setback in oil prices. There was also speculation that the OPEC front was crumbling in terms of production cuts. Reuters reported that some officials were considering not extending the 1.2 million barrels per day production cut beyond June. The move was actually planned until the end of the year. Now, however, the US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran were quicker than expected. The Internet medium Oilprice.com, which focuses on the energy market, even asked whether this was the end of the OPEC deal. Especially since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin had said a few days ago that he did not want an uncontrolled rise in the price of oil.

Mixed situation in Asia

Investors in Asia had provided mixed specifications for the stock market. The CSI 300 with the most important shares of the People’s Republic of China fell by 0.2 percent to 3,989 points. In March, exports from China had increased significantly. However, imports fell. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.7 percent to 21,871 points. The main reason for this was fast retailing: the share price rose by more than 7 per cent, but the Group still expects a record result thanks to strong demand in China.
The tensions are quietly rising in New York the night before, Wall Street had already taken it easy. The Dow Jones Industrial closed almost unchanged at minus 0.1 percent to 26,143 points. The S&P 500 also remained unchanged in percentage terms at 2,888 points. And high-tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.2 percent to 7595 points. With such sluggish volatility, only CFDs with their leverage effect offer good yield opportunities. So stay on the ball with Germany’s best CFD brokers!

Goldilocks

If the US balance sheet season were not just around the corner, there would certainly have been more movement in New York. Because the initial applications for unemployment benefits fell below the magic mark of 200,000 at 196,000, the situation on the job market is better than expected. For the stock market, this is actually a “goldilocks” situation, an all-round carefree paradise for happy goldilocks: Interest rates are low, unemployment is also low and wages are rising only moderately. The consumer climate index of the University of Michigan will show today from 4 p.m. whether the rosy situation will continue like this. As service for you the Bernstein bank compiled the most important dates here at: Market Mover
We wish you a good day trading!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

dax chart

Investors are exercising patience

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11.04.2019 – Daily report. Stockbrokers currently need a lot of restraint. The Brexit will probably walk around like a bogeyman until Halloween. There is no news about the China-USA customs dispute. Before the US reporting season starts tomorrow, there is growing skepticism as to whether the latest bull market will match the results. The DAX, for example, reversed in its early trading session on Thursday.

Brokers Wait for US Quarterly Figures

Investors in Frankfurt have been reluctant to invest recently. The DAX slipped slightly to below 11,900 points. For many brokers there will only be a decision on the direction from tomorrow, then the US reporting season will start in the first quarter with Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. There may be a negative surprise here. For example, the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” referred to an evaluation of the Factset information service. According to this, analysts for the S&P 500 anticipate a 4 percent decline in profits for the first quarter compared to the previous year. At the beginning of the quarter, analysts had expected growth of just under 3 percent.

bernstein-bank-gmbh-chart

Brexit postponed until Halloween

We must also wait and see with the British pound. The European Union and the government in London have agreed to postpone the Brexit date until 31 October. However, the United Kingdom can resign earlier if the Brexit Treaty, which has already been rejected several times, passes through Parliament. After all, a hard Brexit will be averted by tomorrow’s Friday. We therefore expect a sustained hanging game in the coming months.

Customs dispute drags on

Investors also need to be patient when it comes to the US-China customs dispute. Apart from the usual speech bubbles, no nutritious news about the tickers has been published recently. US Secretary of Commerce Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that Washington and Beijing had basically agreed on a mechanism to enforce a deal. We are still waiting.

Cold shower from Beijing

After all, there was movement and profit for the bears in China. The CSI 200 lost 2.2 percent to 3,998 points. There was speculation on the floor about government intervention in equity trading. The most recent rumour was that Beijing wanted to cool the bull market and influence the markets, for example through state funds or official comments in the state-controlled press. In addition, brokers suspected that the state wanted to restrict share purchases through loans. Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 has gained around a third in value.

Nothing new from the Fed

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee in March provided a restrained stimulus for the stock market. The Dow Jones closed yesterday almost unchanged at 26,157 points. After all, the S&P 500 rose by around 0.4 percent to 2888 points in the middle of the week. The Nasdaq 100 even gained 0.6 percent to 7511 points. No wonder, since there was a lot of joy here about the confirmation of the American interest rate policy. According to the minutes published by the Fed yesterday, the existing risks speak for an unchanged key interest rate in 2019 according to a majority of the members. There are still “significant uncertainties” about the outlook.

“Whatever it takes 2.0”

Let us stay with the central banks. Many traders rubbed their eyes in surprise yesterday. For central bank chairman Draghi said that the European Central Bank was ready to adjust all its instruments if necessary. ALL instruments. So the concrete wording yesterday right at the beginning of his press conference. In plain language: If the economy of the Monetary Union were to weaken strongly, the ECB could turn up its money supply again. This reminded some of July 2012, when Draghi said his famous words that the ECB would do whatever it takes to save the euro. So how bad is the situation in Euroland really? The coming weeks will show. Otherwise, the ECB continued to hold out the prospect of not touching interest rates until at least the end of December. As expected, the key interest rate remained at 0.0 percent, where it has remained since March 2016.

This is what the day brings

Let’s take a look at the upcoming dates. At 2.30 p.m. the first applications for unemployment benefits are due, the forecast is 209,000. At the same time the US producer prices are ticking over in March; here the outlook is 0.1 percent. All scheduled events can be found here: Market Mover
We wish you a very successful day trading!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

neue_börse_nachrichten

Super Wednesday

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10.04.2019 – Daily report. Slight plus for the DAX on early Super Wednesday. The bullish investors hope for a new boost from a bouquet full of news. Because with the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, US economic data and the EU summit on Brexit, the table for active investors is richly set. CFD traders should pay particular attention to their trading platform today.

Softeners for the Brexit

Initially, the focus will be on the British pound in the foreign exchange market. For the time being, a hard, possibly chaotic farewell of the British to the European Union seems to have been averted. The European heads of state and government probably want to give London more time for an orderly EU exit at their special summit today, Wednesday. This is what emerged from the draft final declaration. But that has its price: The United Kingdom is to take part in the European elections at the end of May. We are curious to see how the hardliners among the Brexiteers will react. It was unclear exactly when concrete news would arrive.

Everything looks to the ECB

From 13.45 it will be exciting in terms of the European Central Bank. It will then report the outcome of its Council meeting. Hardly anyone expects a change in the key interest rate of 0 percent. And at 2.30 p.m. Mario Draghi will explain to the press whether the commercial banks can expect new relief. Perhaps the highest currency guardian even indicates a resumption of bond purchases. Every surprise should cause some excitement in the euro.
Italy and Spain are particularly in the focus of the ECB because the banks there are weakening. Yesterday Italy already delivered an affront to the EU Commission: The government has significantly lowered its growth forecast for this year. For 2019 it expects economic growth of only 0.2 percent instead of 1.0 percent. At the same time, Rome raised its deficit forecast. The expected new debt was raised from 2.04 percent of GDP to 2.4 percent.

Fed and fresh US economic data

So the music plays on dollars and US futures. At 14.30 consumer prices arrive and finally real incomes, both for March.
At 4.30 p.m., the events change to the energy market: There, the state Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report the weekly stock data of the crude oil stocks. Today, Wednesday, OPEC should also publish its monthly report.
The evening will also bring plenty of reading material: At 8 p.m. the Federal Reserve will publish its minutes of the Open Market Committee meeting of 19/20 March.

The wrong world in China

Asia had previously set mixed targets for Frankfurt trade. The Nikkei 225 closed in Tokyo 0.5 percent lower at 21,688 points. In contrast, the Mainland index CSI 300 in China retired with a plus of 0.3 percent at 4,086 points. Here investors quickly reinterpreted negative news into positive news: The China Passenger Car Association (PCA) reported a drop in sales for the tenth consecutive month. Previously, the car market had grown for twenty years. The stock market is now hoping for incentives to buy from the state and a gigantic catch-up effect.

Disappointment in New York

In the USA, the bears were in charge on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.7 percent to 26,151 points. The S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent to 2878 points. And the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.4 percent to 7568 points. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was the spoiler: It lowered its estimates for global economic growth in 2019 – for the third time in just a few months. For 2019, the organization only expects growth of 3.3 per cent. This is 0.2 percentage points higher than in January.
We are curious to see how Wall Street will react to the incoming economic data and wish you successful day trading!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

börse_nachrichten

Stagnation everywhere

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09.04.2019 – Daily report. Global stock trading is waiting. On the one hand, there is nothing new about the China-USA customs dispute. Rather, the conflict with the EU is now boiling up. On top of that, the Brexit is struggling. Furthermore, there are currently few interesting economic data available. A real directional decision for Wall Street will only come in the reporting season. Thus, the DAX is shimmying just under 12,000 points.

DAX moving sideways

Lead time on the stock exchange: Recently there was hardly any movement in real-time prices on the trading platform. The German benchmark index moved slightly lower in early Tuesday trading. In this market, at best CFD traders can earn a little money, thanks to the leverage. Brokers are waiting for interesting news. However, there were few of them.

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Positive news in short supply

According to the Chinese television channel CCTV, the US and China have made further progress in their recent trade talks. Negotiations are expected to continue this week. That was it.
A report on the customs dispute with the EU caused restraint: Washington is targeting the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus because of the subsidies. The US administration published a list of products that could be subject to tariffs in retaliation – including commercial aircraft, aircraft components, dairy products and wine.
Scepticism prevails in the constant misery surrounding the Brexit. The danger of Britain’s chaotic exit from the EU this Friday has still not been averted. We are eagerly awaiting the upcoming Brexit summit. After all, the pound sterling has so far accepted all the capers in a largely stable and calm manner.

Asia and New York undecided

Investors in Frankfurt received no real impulses from overseas. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.2 percent higher at 21,803 points. The CSI 300 went unchanged at 4,059 points out of the day.

Wall Street had already closed on Monday evening without a clear trend. The Dow Jones lost 0.3 percent to 26,341 points. The Boeing share, which is strongly weighted in the Dow, once again made negative headlines. Here, the reduction in production of the 737 MAX pulled the price down. Also according to a report of the “South China Morning Post” the China Aircraft Leasing (CALC) put the orders for the breakdown plane on ice after two crashes of a 737 Max and various flight bans.
For the S&P 500, it went up a minimum of 0.1 percent to 2896 points. The high-tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 recorded a profit of 0.3 percent to around 7600 positions. Data from US industry turned out as expected: Order intake in February was down 0.5 percent on the previous month.

This is what the day brings

The Tuesday deadline situation looks rather sparse. At 3 p.m. German time, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will present their views in the World Economic Outlook at their spring meeting.
Late in the evening at 22.30 the American Petroleum Institute reports its inventory data for crude oil stocks.
The Bernstein Bank wishes you a successful day trading!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

trading graphic

Sabers are rattling among friends

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08.04.2019 – Special report. We already know that: The Saudis supposedly just warned the USA of anti-cartel legislation again. Riyadh will drop the dollar if the NOPEC Act is passed. Most brokers will probably only shrug their shoulders. But what if this time the conflict actually escalates – and petrodollars are used as a weapon in an economic war? We will shed light on the background.

There is always a first time

Perhaps it will turn out as always: NOPEC is prevented, the USA reaches an agreement with the OPEC states and their supporters. They don’t drive the oil price too high to keep the US economy and the global economy from being stalled. But perhaps this time a black swan will actually land on the floor. Reason enough for the Bernstein Bank to devote itself to this smoldering crisis.

Petrodollars as a nuclear option

It is clear that the mood between the USA and the Saudis has deteriorated continuously. Last week, Reuters reported the following, citing unnamed people from Saudi energy policy: Saudi Arabia had threatened to let the dollar fall. In the future, the country could sell its oil for other currencies as well if OPEC became the target of American anti-trust legislation. Riyadh discussed the plan with other OPEC states and communicated it to the American authorities. The Saudis knew that they could use the dollar as a “nuclear option”. If NOPEC were adopted, the US economy would fall apart.

Fear of NOPEC

NOPEC – specifically: No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act – is a kind of political zombie that has been wandering around for quite some time, but has neither been finally killed nor really brought to life. The bill was first discussed in 2000. According to him, OPEC states and their supporters in the US could be charged with antitrust violations, which could result in detention and expropriation. So NOPEC is not yet a law. Nonetheless, the act under Donald Trump and an insubordinate Congress has gained momentum: Trump has not yet spoken out in favor of it as president, but in a book from 2011 he supported it. However, US Energy Secretary Rick Perry has already warned that NOPEC will have undesirable consequences.

US Treasuries as a weapon

The issue of government bonds is also becoming more explosive because of NOPEC. About three years ago, the Saudis had already rattled their treasury sabers for the first time: The New York Times reported that Riyadh would throw US government bonds worth hundreds of billions of dollars onto the market. This would happen if Congress passed a law according to which the Saudi government could be held responsible before US courts for the attacks of 11 September 2001.
Since 2004, according to the financial blog “ZeroHedge”, the Saudis have increased their holdings of US Treasuries from virtually zero to currently around 167 billion dollars. The figures were supported by “Asharq Al-Awsat”, one of the largest Arab daily newspapers: Saudi Arabia held US Treasuries worth around 165 billion dollars until August 2018. The United Arab Emirates had it worth around 60 billion dollars. Kuwait came to 43 billion dollars.
Remains Russia. According to the Russian medium “RT”, the Kremlin reduced its stock of US Treasuries from around 97 billion to 13 billion by last November and bought more gold. The influence of Moscow is therefore still small. Venezuela and Iran, which do not sell oil for dollars, make no big difference either.

De-Dollarization and Petro-Yuan

But an affront by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab US allies would be a significant signal in the de-dollarization process. This could trigger a process in which investors worldwide assume a crash of the dollar and treasuries and thus reinforce it. The leading global holders of American bonds are still China and Japan, both of which have already reduced their holdings: The People’s Republic still holds about 1,200 billion US dollars, Japan about 1,000 billion.
Since OPEC is also likely to curb production in the course of a dispute, CFD traders should also keep an eye on commodities. In addition, there are already attempts to establish another currency in oil trading: The yuan. Investors should not ignore it either.

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

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Dampers for the start of the week

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08.04.2019 – Daily report. Little stopper for the stock market cops: Bad news from the German economy and the automotive industry slowed down the DAX in early Monday trading. The leading index remained slightly below the 12,000 mark. Brokers in Frankfurt are waiting for new boost from upcoming data by the USA.

Again and again fear of the economy

German exports fell more sharply in February than at any time in a year due to the weaker global economy. Exports slipped by 1.3 percent compared to the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office on Monday. Most analysts had only forecast a minus of 0.5 percent. “The air is out,” commented Volker Treier, head of foreign trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). ” There is little hope that this will change in the coming months. “

Car manufacturers in the EU’s sights

The EU Commission suspects BMW, Daimler and VW of violating European antitrust law. Even if these were not price agreements, the car manufacturers would have avoided competition by reducing exhaust emissions through agreements. They had thereby denied consumers the opportunity to buy more environmentally friendly vehicles.

Mixed signals from overseas

In Asia, investors had shown little buying mood in the morning. In Tokyo, the Nikkei closed 0.2 percent lower at 21,772 points. The CSI 300 also fell by 0.4 percent to 4,044 points.
Prior to this, Wall Street had provided a moderate tailwind. The Dow Jones closed with a slight gain of around 0.2 percent to 26,425 points. Thus achieved a gain of 1.9 per cent in the previous week. Now the Dow is only a good 500 points below its peak at the beginning of October 2018. The market-wide S&P 500 had left trading on Friday with a gain of 0.5 percent at 2893 points. And the Nasdaq 100 went into the weekend with a plus of 0.5 percent at 7579 points.
The rise was driven by strong data from the US labor market: 196,000 new jobs were created outside agriculture in March. Analysts had expected an average of only 177,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent.

Oil boom continues

However, the question arises as to whether the oil price is not dampening hopes of an economic upturn. Oil has climbed to its highest level in five months. The main reason for this is the curtailment of production in the OPEC states and the allied export countries. In addition, the US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela are scaling back supply.

This is what the day brings

Now the stock market is looking at the order intake for the US industry, which is to be reported today, Monday, at 16.00 hrs.
It is questionable whether the stock market will take a large position before the start of the reporting season. The big bank JPMorgan Chase will make the start among the blue chips on Friday before the opening of the stock exchange.
Today at least Sears gives a first taste of the situation in the retail sector.
Meanwhile the market researchers of Data Trek Research warned in their interview with CNBC against gruesome quarterly figures. At present, expectations for the results are minus 3.9 percent – the first negative three months since the second quarter of 2016.
So let’s wait and see – Bernstein Bank wishes you good trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.