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Gregor Kuhn

Dax with weak start to trading – Italian government formation in focus

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23/05/2018 – 10:00 am: In the middle of the week, the leading German index starts the trading day with a minus of around 0.6 percent and expands this minus to 1.4 percent in the first few minutes of trading. The Dax is currently trading at 13,008 points.

Against the backdrop of negative targets from the USA and the Asian stock exchanges, the trading day on the Frankfurt trading floor began with a minus. During yesterday’s trading session, the Dax still reached its highest level since January 2018, but the selling pressure seems to have increased this morning. The Dow Jones Index closed at 24,834 points, down 0.72 percent. The broader S&P 500 lost around 0.3 percent and closed the trading day at 2724 points. Analysts cite the currently difficult trade negotiations between the US and China as the background to the weaker day.

With Argus eyes, investors worldwide are following the continuing difficult formation of a government in Italy. Currently, the members of the alliance of the 5-star movement and the “Lega” party still seem to be looking for a head of government. A shaky game, not least for the European single currency. At 1.1750 US dollars, the euro is currently down about 0.2 percent.

On the economic and business cycle news page, investors are waiting for the publication of several purchasing managers’ indices from Germany and the euro zone. After the close of the European stock market, the US Federal Reserve still publishes its minutes from the beginning of May.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax starts trading almost unchanged

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17/05/2018 – 09:00 am: After the leading German index gained a few points on the previous day, the Dax remains virtually unchanged at 12,987 points in the early trading session . In addition to other balance sheet results, investors are likely to keep an eye on the formation of a government in Italy today.

Since the targets from the USA cannot provide any acute impetus, investors and analysts expect an unchanged start to today’s trading day. During the current reporting season, Deutsche Telekom, SAP and the car manufacturer BMW will today provide insights into the past quarter.

The focus today should be on the possible formation of a government in Italy and the closely linked development of the European currency. Yesterday, the euro hit a temporary low for the year at 1.1764 US dollars. Not least because of the plans from Italy to bring significant increases in expenditure with accompanying tax cuts on the way. Both points should be difficult or even impossible to reconcile with the monetary union stability agreements.

On the economic and business news side, things remain relatively quiet today. In the afternoon, the first applications for unemployment assistance from the central bank of Philadelphia are on the agenda in the USA.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax tries to defend the level of 13,000 points

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11/05/2018 – 10:00 am: After the leading German index climbed to the psychologically important level of 13,000 points on yesterday’s trading day, the stock market barometer is trying to maintain this level today. At 13,002 points, the Dax is currently trading extremely thinly above this level.

On the last trading day of this week, some companies will once again give an insight into their quarterly financial statements. In addition to the world’s largest steel giant Arcelor-Mittal, Talanx AG will also give a look at its books.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the stock markets also ended yesterday’s trading behind positive signs. The Dow Jones Indes gained 0.8 percent during the course of trading and dropped out of the day with around 24,740 points. The technology exchange NASDAQ and the broader S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent and closed the trading session with 7404 points and 2723 points respectively.

On the Asian stock markets, the good targets set by the USA were also implemented positively, enabling the Japanese Nikkei to mark the highest level of the past three months at 22.662 points. The increase was around 0.75 percent.

On the economic side, investors and analysts await today’s publication on US consumer confidence of the University of Michigan. Especially against the background of the current US interest rate policy, consumer confidence could gain increased attention.

The common European currency is currently trading almost unchanged at USD 1.1922.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Investors are holding back – Geopolitical risks as a burden

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12/04/2018 – 11:10 am: In view of the impending escalation in Syria, investors remain on the sidelines until further notice. Although the US president had rowed back again after announcing his intention to intervene militarily in the conflict, he recently only described this intervention as a possible option. Nevertheless, the scenario of a direct confrontation between the US and Russia in the Middle East has considerable potential. Accordingly, the US stock indices had gone weaker out of trading. The same applies to the stock markets in the Far East.

Against this background, the leading German index shows relative strength with a moderate minus of currently 0.2 percent. The volatility reflecting the uncertainty should remain high in this mixed situation. A tendency is not discernible in this context. Positive and negative news can have a direct impact on the prices and determine the further direction. Against this background, investors are playing it safe and keeping their powder dry until further notice.

In addition to the further development in Syria, economic data from both sides of the Atlantic are also attracting attention today. While February industrial production figures and the most recent ECB meeting minutes need to be evaluated in the Euro Zone, the focus in the USA is on weekly initial applications for unemployment benefits and the development of import and export prices in March.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax starts weaker – Possible conflict escalation in Syria

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11/04/2018 – 09:45 am: The leading German index starts into the middle of the week behind negative signs. On the one hand, the Dax is paying tribute to yesterday’s upswing, and on the other a possible US military strike in Syria is causing uncertainty. While the trade conflict between the USA and China has recently been eased, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are now increasing.

A military escalation with the direct involvement of the United States and possibly also France in response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by Syrian armed forces is now proving to be a further burdening factor. The latter then already put pressure on share prices in Nippon. As a result, the Japanese Nikkei closed behind a minus of 0.5 percent. In view of these risks, the international stock markets are likely to remain highly volatile.

In addition to further developments in the potential trade war and Syrian crisis, investors today are now looking in particular at economic figures from the other side of the Atlantic. In addition to US inflation data and real incomes for the month of March, the FOMC meeting protocol of the US Federal Reserve is on the agenda.

At the moment, the Dax can limit its loss again and is 0.2 percent weaker at 12,368 points. By contrast, the Euro can increase by a moderate 0.2 percent to currently USD 1.2382. Gold currently trades at USD 1,345, a gain of 0.3 percent per troy ounce.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax gains momentum – China takes the first step

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04/10/2018 – 6:20 pm: The Dax is leaving Tuesday trading with confidence. The leading German index closes just below 12,400 points, an increase of just under 1.1 percent. The upward trend is supported by China’s announcements to significantly reduce tariffs on automobile imports, among other things. China is thus taking a first step towards de-escalating the recently escalating trade conflict with the United States of America. In this context, President Xi Jinping spoke of a “new phase of opening up” his country. In addition, foreign access to the Chinese financial market should be significantly facilitated.

The stock markets around the world are correspondingly relieved. The danger of an escalating trade war had recently caused enormous uncertainty among investors. All the more reason to breathe a sigh of relief. Friendly guidelines from the Far East and green omens from the old world are now also pushing Wall Street into the northern course area. Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq are all reporting mark-ups above 1.5 percent at the moment. Meanwhile, the Euro can increase by a moderate 0.1 percent to currently 1.2339 US Dollars. Gold trades at USD 1,338, an increase of 0.2 percent per troy ounce.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Outlook: Most relevant publications of this trading week

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04/09/2018: Numerous economic data are on the calendar for the new trading week. On Monday the German trade and current account balance as well as the investors confidence in the Euro-Zone will be taken into account. On Tuesday attention will focus on US producer prices and American wholesale inventories. By midweek, market participants are waiting for US inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The next day, industrial production in the Euro-Zone (February) and the ECB meeting minutes of the Euro-Zone come to the fore. In the USA the first weekly applications for unemployment benefit as well as import and export prices are due to be published. Finally at the end of the week inflation figures for Germany, the trade balance in the Euro-Zone and US consumer confidence of the University of Michigan are on the agenda.

Monday – 04/09/18: 08:00 am Trade and current account Germany (February) / 10:30 am Sentix investor confidence Euro-Zone (April)

Tuesday – 04/10/18: 02:30 pm Producer Prices USA (March) / 04:00 pm Inventory stocks wholesale USA (February) / 10:30 pm API Crude oil Inventory data USA (week)

Wednesday – 04/11/18: 02:30 pm Consumer prices USA (March) / 02:30 pm Real income USA (March) / 04:30 pm EIA crude oil inventory data USA (week) / 08:00 pm FOMC meeting minutes USA

Thursday – 04/12/18: 11:00 am Industrial production Euro-Zone (February) / 01:30 pm ECB minutes Euro-Zone / 02:30 pm First applications for unemployment benefits USA (week) / 02:30 pm Import and export prices USA (March)

Friday – 04/13/18: 08:00 am Consumer prices Germany (March) / 11:00 pm Trade balance Euro-Zone (February) / 04:00 pm University of Michigan consumer confidence USA (April)

All times are based on CET. For more information please see our Economic Calendar (Market Movers).

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax again over 12,000 points – Tailwind from the German job data

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03/29/2018 – 11:45 am: The leading German index surpasses the 12,000 point mark this morning. In addition to friendly specifications from the Far East, surprisingly positive job market data from Germany are providing a tailwind. The number of unemployed fell by 204,000 in March compared to March last year. Compared to the previous month, the figure has fallen by 88,000 and the German unemployment rate has fallen by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5 percent.

It remains to be seen how sustained the current trend will be. Uncertainty remains high, and the prices have been correspondingly volatile over the past few trading days. In the USA, Dow Jones and S&P closed yesterday with little change. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is once again showing red signs at the close of the market. The data scandal surrounding Facebook continues to burden the entire technology sector. Moreover, it is not yet clear whether the United States and China will reach an agreement in the trade dispute over punitive tariffs.

Last but not least, price movements on Green Thursday should not be overvalued. Shortly before Easter, many market players are already on holiday. On Good Friday and Easter Monday, the stock exchanges in Germany keep their trading doors closed. As a result, sales are already thin today. So the start on Wall Street should point the way to the end of the trading week here.

As trading progresses, investors look ahead to German inflation figures for the month of March. On the other side of the Atlantic, the weekly labour market data, private income and expenditure for March and the Chicago purchasing manager and consumer confidence of the University of Michigan, also for March, are in the spotlight. At 12,031 points, the Dax is 0.8 percent stronger at the moment. At 1.2308 US dollars, the Euro is still pointing in no direction.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Nasdaq under pressure – Correction before Easter

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28.03.2018 – 15:00: The Nasdaq technology exchange is currently under massive selling pressure. After an initial correction at the beginning of February and a near recovery to new all-time highs, the index is heading south again since mid-March with a high momentum. As a result, the stochastic oscillator indicates a strongly oversold market situation. While the 50-day moving average (MA50) was broken as a result, the American stock index has been struggling to achieve initial stabilization in the region of 6,500 points over the past few days. These currently tested price zones represent the forced, longer-term upward trend since leaving a four-month sideways phase between August and December 2016.

Should the correction movement develop new dynamics, there are several support zones on the underside, which serve as potential support zones from a charting perspective. At around 6,400 points, for example, the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement can be seen – derived from the all-time high and the superior long-term upward trend that began in February 2016. Below this, the 200-day moving average (MA200) is in the range of 6,300 points. In the range of 6,230 points, there is again a horizontal support region, whose supporting character is again backed by the low of the February correction.

In the large picture everything is still in balance from the charting point of view. The MA50 and MA200 continue to run hierarchically one above the other in an upward direction, which in turn indicates a solid, intact upward trend. In addition, the long-term upward trend line runs in significantly lower price regions. Should the Nasdaq return to the north, there is preliminary recovery potential up to the range of the moving 50-day average. If this resistance can be overcome, technical upward potential up to the horizontal resistance level at 7,020 points is activated. This is followed by the all-time high of 7,200 points.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Equity markets under pressure – Tech titles as a burden

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03/28/2018 – 10:35 am: The recovery movement started yesterday can be put on file again. Dark red targets from the USA and the Far East are causing the share price to slide again. While the Dax was still above 12,000 points on Tuesday, the 12,800 points mark is now being tested in early trading. Sharp losses on the Nasdaq technology exchange are proving to be a negative factor.

In the course of the data scandal on Facebook, further tech titles are now coming under pressure. Against this background, investors fear stricter regulation of the industry in the future. As a result, technology stocks in Asia are also coming under massive pressure. The Japanese Nikkei loses 1.3 percent on Wednesday. The Chinese SSE50 shows a decline of 1.9 percent at the end of the trading session.

Today’s trading focuses on economic data from the US and Europe in particular. While the Gfk consumer climate for Germany is on the agenda here in April, on the other side of the Atlantic the economic growth for Q4 2017 as well as inventories and pending house sales are published for February. The focus is also on developments in the trade conflict between the USA and China.

At 11,809 points, the Dax is 1.4 percent weaker at the moment. The Euro fell moderately by 0.1 percent to USD 1.2398. Gold is currently falling by 0.2 percent to 1,341 US dollars per troy ounce.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.