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Gregor Kuhn

Dax can curb the heavy weekly losses

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22/06/2018 – 11:00 am: At the end of a week of selling pressure, the leading German index may slow down its losses. Nevertheless, the Dax ended its worst trading week since March this year. At 12.542 points, the index is currently up by around 0.4 percent.

In addition to the open trade dispute between the USA and China and Europe, the main negative factors are the resurgence of the European single currency. Against this backdrop, investors sold their shares this week and brought the Dax a respectable minus of a good 4 percent. In the previous week, the Dax was still able to pass the 13.000 point mark. At the moment, the 12.500 point mark seems to provide some support.

The Euro can make strong gains on today’s trading day and is up half a percent at USD 1.1645. Such a constellation may cause stomach ache for export-oriented companies from the Euro zone as their products become more expensive abroad. Currently, however, at least the German economy still seems to be stable. Recent economic data in the form of recently published purchasing managers’ indices gave investors and analysts a positive surprise. The purchasing managers’ index for the services sector, for example, rose by 1.8 percent to 53.9 points. A value above the 50 mark is interpreted as a positive signal for an expansion of production activities.

As far as commodities are concerned, investors are concentrating on today’s meeting of the OPEC nations. Today’s meeting could focus on the decision to increase production. In the run-up to the meeting, the oil price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) rose by 1.1 percent, so that one barrel is currently traded at 66.24 US dollars.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax with weaker start into the week – trade disputes weigh on earnings

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18/06/2018 – 10:00 am: At the beginning of the week, the German stock market barometer is showing little momentum and is currently down by around 0.5 percent at 12,949 points. The most recent trade disputes between the USA and China are disruptive fires.

The development of recent trade sanctions between the US and China may put global investors in a nervous mood. Unfortunately, there currently seems to be a spiral of sanctions and countermeasures, so that investors in the Asian markets are exercising restraint at the beginning of the week. The Japanese Nikkei Index has dropped by 0.8 percent to around 22,680 points.

Against this backdrop, the common European currency has fallen back below the 1.16 USD mark, so that one euro costs 1.1576 dollars at the moment. The main influencing factors for the euro today could be the disputes within the German government on the current issue of asylum policy.

On the side of the economic and business reports, things remain rather quiet over the course of the day. Another speech by ECB President Mario Draghi this evening could be interesting.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

G7 meetings in focus – Dax with weaker opening

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08/06/2018 – 10:00 am: On the last trading day of this week, the leading German index currently stands at 12,665 points, around 1.1 percent lower than the previous day. Investors and analysts are focusing on the G7 Summit in Canada this weekend.

Against the backdrop of negative specifications from both the American and Asian stock markets, investors seem to be separating from their securities. Among other things, perhaps to avoid being mistakenly positioned by possible disputes at the forthcoming G7 meeting.

Another shadow is cast by the ECB’s monetary policy discussions starting next week. European monetary watchdogs may be discussing an imminent end to the ECB’s current bond purchases next week. Such a scenario is likely to cause worry among investors and analysts.

The European single currency is currently trading below the 1.18 USD mark, so that one euro currently costs 1.1770 USD.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

German Dax starts the trading day unchanged

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05/06/2018 – 10:45 am: After the Dax recorded a small plus at the beginning of the week, the leading index remained unchanged at 12,770 points on the previous day’s level at the start of trading today. Investors are likely to be reluctant to trade ahead of next weekend’s G7 meeting.

Investors and analysts are likely to focus throughout the week on the preparations for the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada this weekend. There are, of course, fears that a new escalation stage could be initiated with regard to punitive tariffs and other trade barriers.

Against this background and additionally by the new government in Italy, the European single currency continues to be on shaky ground. The euro is currently unchanged at USD 1.1693.

With regard to the global economic data, investors expect the latest European Purchasing Managers’ Indices this morning before this afternoon’s data from the U.S. is released.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax with weak start to trading – Italian government formation in focus

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23/05/2018 – 10:00 am: In the middle of the week, the leading German index starts the trading day with a minus of around 0.6 percent and expands this minus to 1.4 percent in the first few minutes of trading. The Dax is currently trading at 13,008 points.

Against the backdrop of negative targets from the USA and the Asian stock exchanges, the trading day on the Frankfurt trading floor began with a minus. During yesterday’s trading session, the Dax still reached its highest level since January 2018, but the selling pressure seems to have increased this morning. The Dow Jones Index closed at 24,834 points, down 0.72 percent. The broader S&P 500 lost around 0.3 percent and closed the trading day at 2724 points. Analysts cite the currently difficult trade negotiations between the US and China as the background to the weaker day.

With Argus eyes, investors worldwide are following the continuing difficult formation of a government in Italy. Currently, the members of the alliance of the 5-star movement and the “Lega” party still seem to be looking for a head of government. A shaky game, not least for the European single currency. At 1.1750 US dollars, the euro is currently down about 0.2 percent.

On the economic and business cycle news page, investors are waiting for the publication of several purchasing managers’ indices from Germany and the euro zone. After the close of the European stock market, the US Federal Reserve still publishes its minutes from the beginning of May.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax starts trading almost unchanged

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17/05/2018 – 09:00 am: After the leading German index gained a few points on the previous day, the Dax remains virtually unchanged at 12,987 points in the early trading session . In addition to other balance sheet results, investors are likely to keep an eye on the formation of a government in Italy today.

Since the targets from the USA cannot provide any acute impetus, investors and analysts expect an unchanged start to today’s trading day. During the current reporting season, Deutsche Telekom, SAP and the car manufacturer BMW will today provide insights into the past quarter.

The focus today should be on the possible formation of a government in Italy and the closely linked development of the European currency. Yesterday, the euro hit a temporary low for the year at 1.1764 US dollars. Not least because of the plans from Italy to bring significant increases in expenditure with accompanying tax cuts on the way. Both points should be difficult or even impossible to reconcile with the monetary union stability agreements.

On the economic and business news side, things remain relatively quiet today. In the afternoon, the first applications for unemployment assistance from the central bank of Philadelphia are on the agenda in the USA.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax tries to defend the level of 13,000 points

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11/05/2018 – 10:00 am: After the leading German index climbed to the psychologically important level of 13,000 points on yesterday’s trading day, the stock market barometer is trying to maintain this level today. At 13,002 points, the Dax is currently trading extremely thinly above this level.

On the last trading day of this week, some companies will once again give an insight into their quarterly financial statements. In addition to the world’s largest steel giant Arcelor-Mittal, Talanx AG will also give a look at its books.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the stock markets also ended yesterday’s trading behind positive signs. The Dow Jones Indes gained 0.8 percent during the course of trading and dropped out of the day with around 24,740 points. The technology exchange NASDAQ and the broader S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent and closed the trading session with 7404 points and 2723 points respectively.

On the Asian stock markets, the good targets set by the USA were also implemented positively, enabling the Japanese Nikkei to mark the highest level of the past three months at 22.662 points. The increase was around 0.75 percent.

On the economic side, investors and analysts await today’s publication on US consumer confidence of the University of Michigan. Especially against the background of the current US interest rate policy, consumer confidence could gain increased attention.

The common European currency is currently trading almost unchanged at USD 1.1922.

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Investors are holding back – Geopolitical risks as a burden

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12/04/2018 – 11:10 am: In view of the impending escalation in Syria, investors remain on the sidelines until further notice. Although the US president had rowed back again after announcing his intention to intervene militarily in the conflict, he recently only described this intervention as a possible option. Nevertheless, the scenario of a direct confrontation between the US and Russia in the Middle East has considerable potential. Accordingly, the US stock indices had gone weaker out of trading. The same applies to the stock markets in the Far East.

Against this background, the leading German index shows relative strength with a moderate minus of currently 0.2 percent. The volatility reflecting the uncertainty should remain high in this mixed situation. A tendency is not discernible in this context. Positive and negative news can have a direct impact on the prices and determine the further direction. Against this background, investors are playing it safe and keeping their powder dry until further notice.

In addition to the further development in Syria, economic data from both sides of the Atlantic are also attracting attention today. While February industrial production figures and the most recent ECB meeting minutes need to be evaluated in the Euro Zone, the focus in the USA is on weekly initial applications for unemployment benefits and the development of import and export prices in March.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax starts weaker – Possible conflict escalation in Syria

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11/04/2018 – 09:45 am: The leading German index starts into the middle of the week behind negative signs. On the one hand, the Dax is paying tribute to yesterday’s upswing, and on the other a possible US military strike in Syria is causing uncertainty. While the trade conflict between the USA and China has recently been eased, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are now increasing.

A military escalation with the direct involvement of the United States and possibly also France in response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by Syrian armed forces is now proving to be a further burdening factor. The latter then already put pressure on share prices in Nippon. As a result, the Japanese Nikkei closed behind a minus of 0.5 percent. In view of these risks, the international stock markets are likely to remain highly volatile.

In addition to further developments in the potential trade war and Syrian crisis, investors today are now looking in particular at economic figures from the other side of the Atlantic. In addition to US inflation data and real incomes for the month of March, the FOMC meeting protocol of the US Federal Reserve is on the agenda.

At the moment, the Dax can limit its loss again and is 0.2 percent weaker at 12,368 points. By contrast, the Euro can increase by a moderate 0.2 percent to currently USD 1.2382. Gold currently trades at USD 1,345, a gain of 0.3 percent per troy ounce.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Dax gains momentum – China takes the first step

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04/10/2018 – 6:20 pm: The Dax is leaving Tuesday trading with confidence. The leading German index closes just below 12,400 points, an increase of just under 1.1 percent. The upward trend is supported by China’s announcements to significantly reduce tariffs on automobile imports, among other things. China is thus taking a first step towards de-escalating the recently escalating trade conflict with the United States of America. In this context, President Xi Jinping spoke of a “new phase of opening up” his country. In addition, foreign access to the Chinese financial market should be significantly facilitated.

The stock markets around the world are correspondingly relieved. The danger of an escalating trade war had recently caused enormous uncertainty among investors. All the more reason to breathe a sigh of relief. Friendly guidelines from the Far East and green omens from the old world are now also pushing Wall Street into the northern course area. Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq are all reporting mark-ups above 1.5 percent at the moment. Meanwhile, the Euro can increase by a moderate 0.1 percent to currently 1.2339 US Dollars. Gold trades at USD 1,338, an increase of 0.2 percent per troy ounce.

 

 

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.